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Post by ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ on May 13, 2016 13:45:03 GMT
Imagine an economy at the natural level of output. When there is a permanent decrease in government spending in the AS-AD model there will be a inward shift of the AD curve. The AS curve will then slowly shift out as the price level is below the expected price level decreasing the real money stock therefore the interest rate and hence output will increase again. In this way the economy will return to the natural level of output.
1. Under Rational expectations (RE) if the change in government spending was announced the shift of AS and AD will be simultaneous and the economy will stay at the natural level of output 2. Under RE if the government did not announce this the economy will temporarily be below the natural level and then quickly return 3. Under adaptive expectations if phi is 0 the economy will never return to the natural output level as the price level will consistently be incorrectly anticipated never changing the money stock 4. The larger phi the faster the economy will return to the natural level as the expectations will change faster.
Is this a correct understanding of how Adaptive and Rational Expectations work in AS-AD ? If not what is wrong and what is right ?
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Post by Chris on May 13, 2016 20:06:28 GMT
As far as I understand, yes that's right. As long as agents are rational, they know exactly how the model works, so:
If the change is announced, agents immediately adjust their expectation of prices so that AS shifts simultaneously with AD and Y = Y_n. If the change is a shock to agents, they still make the same adjustment but one period late, so Y is below Y_n for exactly one period before returning.
However, if agents have adaptive expectations, they have no understanding of the model, and base their expectations solely on what occurred in the past. Phi is a measure of how much weight they attach to previous prices when forming expectations. So the larger the phi, the quicker their expectations adjust to the price change, and hence the quicker the economy moves to the medium run equilibrium.
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Post by Oliver on May 13, 2016 21:51:02 GMT
Hi,
This parts of your answer are not clear:
The AS curve will then slowly shift out as the price level is below the expected price level ******decreasing the real money stock****** therefore the interest rate and hence output will increase again
Otherwise, sounds okay
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